NIFC has just released their March 1 2016 National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for the period of March thru June.
In Summary, for the Western United States we are in wetter than average season for the much of the west but not entirely. Northern California and West of the Cascades in Washington and Oregon experienced higher precipitation than average in Fall and Winter which is creating damper than average fuels in the Spring. But the Southwest, Southern California, Eastern Washington and Oregon and most places in the rockies have experienced dryer than average winter and snow packs are lower than average with significant drying of fuels already happening. This would indicate that we should see a similar season to last year with the exception of more potential for fire in the Southwest and Northern California having a late start as fuels begin to dry out later in the summer.
Read the full report here and make your own conclusions: http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf
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